Artificial Intelligence: 10 Trends to Watch in 2017 and Beyond

White Paper Details

Pages: 23
Tables, Charts, Figures: 8
Release Date: 4Q 2016

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Few technologies have the transformative potential to reshape how we live, move, and work.  Electricity and the Internet were two technologies that fundamentally transformed life in the 20th century.  Artificial intelligence (AI) is the 21st century equivalent of electricity and the Internet.  AI is expected to bring massive shifts in how people perceive and interact with technology, with machines performing a wider range of tasks, in many cases doing a better job than humans.

AI, in its simplest definition, is an umbrella term for technologies that are inspired by biological systems, giving computers human-like abilities related to seeing, reasoning, hearing, and learning.  The definition of AI is also a moving target; what is considered AI today, once successfully adopted and implemented, will no longer be considered AI.  Today, AI encompasses technologies like machine learning, deep learning, natural language processing (NLP), computer vision, machine reasoning, and strong AI.

Tractica has conducted an analysis of the AI market by assessing approximately 200 use cases in which AI is being used currently, or will be in the near future.  This bottom-up approach provides a comprehensive view of where AI is today, and its future trajectory.  Tractica’s analysis of the AI market indicates that the technology is already deeply embedded in our lives, and its capabilities are growing at an exponential rate.  There is a degree of hype around AI, but at the same time, it is a mistake to brush off the hype as a precursor to another AI winter.

This white paper presents the top 10 AI market trends to watch in 2017 and beyond, backed by data from Tractica’s bottom-up forecast model.  While many of these trends are well-recognized by industry participants, some are surprising and challenge mainstream thinking about the AI market opportunity.  The key trends examined in this paper are as follows:

  • AI implementations will be focused on incremental improvements in the short term, but its transformative potential should not be ignored
  • Virtually all AI implementations will be narrow AI
  • Deep learning will be the most important AI technology
  • Semi-supervised AI will gain traction
  • A top-heavy and long-tail ecosystem is emerging for AI
  • The era of GPU dominance in the AI market will end
  • AI will impact almost every industry
  • Human perception is a bigger driver for AI than Big Data
  • Professional services is the next big emerging opportunity in AI
  • AI czars will be part of government by 2020

This Tractica white paper examines 10 key AI market trends that Tractica has identified as part of its ongoing analysis of the commercial opportunity for AI, as a means of illustrating how the industry landscape and value chain will evolve in the coming years.  These trends are based on the ongoing research and analysis that form part of Tractica’s Artificial Intelligence Advisory Service.  This white paper is published in partnership with the AI Summit, which is next being held in New York City on December 1, 2016.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • What are some of the key technology and business trends that will shape the evolution of the AI market?
  • How will various industries be impacted by advancements in AI technologies?
  • How will the focus of AI applications begin to move beyond data analytics and on to capabilities that mirror human perception?
  • What are some of the key emerging business opportunities in the AI market?
  • How will the focus on AI ethics continue to evolve over the next several years?

Who Needs This Report?

  • Artificial intelligence technology companies
  • Software companies
  • Semiconductor and component vendors
  • Service providers and systems integrators
  • End-user organizations deploying AI systems
  • Industry organizations
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. 10 Key AI Market Trends to Watch
    1. AI Implementations Will Focus on Incremental Improvements in the Short Term, but its Transformative Potential Should Not Be Ignored
    2. Virtually All AI Implementations Will Be Narrow AI
    3. Deep Learning Will Be the Most Important AI Technology
    4. Semi-Supervised AI Will Gain Traction
    5. A Top-Heavy and Long-Tail Ecosystem Is Emerging for AI
    6. The Era of GPU Dominance in the AI Market Will End
    7. AI Will Impact Almost Every Industry
    8. Human Perception Is a Bigger Driver for AI than Big Data
    9. Professional Services Are the Next Big Emerging Opportunity in AI
    10. AI Czars Will Be Part of Government by 2020
  3. Acronym and Abbreviation List
  4. Table of Contents
  5. Table of Charts and Figures
  6. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
  7. Additional Reading
  8. The AI Summit

List of Charts and Figures

  • Narrow AI versus Strong AI Cumulative Revenue Share, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • AI Revenue by Technology: 2025
  • AI Cumulative Revenue, Top 15 Use Cases, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • AI-Driven Hardware Revenue, GPU and CPU, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • Artificial Intelligence Revenue Share by Industry, World Markets: 2025
  • AI-Driven Services Revenue by Service Category, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • Tractica Research Methodology

List of Tables

  • Top 15 Use Cases and Market Opportunity Matrix